Korea's 2030 methane reduction roadmap: enough to limit 1.5°C?
Assessment of whether Korea's 30% methane reduction target by 2030 aligns with long-term carbon neutrality and 1.5°C pathways.
Methane is a greenhouse gas with about 80 times the warming impact of carbon dioxide over the next 20 years. This means that the faster methane is reduced, the faster global warming can be slowed. To keep average temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels through 2050, methane reduction is among the most effective near-term levers available today.
The Government's Roadmap
In late 2023, the Korean government announced a national methane roadmap, signalling its intention to join global methane reduction efforts. Its 2030 sectoral targets are:
| Sector | Reduction target |
|---|---|
| Waste | 49% |
| Agriculture & livestock | 34.2% |
| Energy | 22.7% |
| Total | 30% |
The Core Question
Does this roadmap adequately reflect the country's mid- to long-term carbon-neutrality goals? How well is it aligned with the 2050 carbon-neutrality scenario and the 2050 agri-food carbon-neutrality strategy that the government has already announced?
Methodology
Using SSP-RCP scenarios, we examined whether the government's sector-by-sector 2030 methane targets — across waste, agriculture/livestock, and energy — are mid- to long-term consistent through 2050.
Key Findings
- The current 2030 methane target may fall short of what is required to stay on a 1.5°C pathway
- Coherence among sectoral targets is weak
- Alignment with the 2050 carbon-neutrality scenario must be improved
- The energy-sector methane target, in particular, needs to be strengthened