The 400 TWh shock from industrial electrification: Korea's 11th basic electricity plan falls short

Industrial electrification is a core pathway to carbon neutrality. Energy-intensive industries — steel, petrochemicals, cement — can dramatically cut emissions by switching from fossil fuels to electricity. But when this transition materialises, electricity demand explodes.

The 400 TWh Shock

Analysis suggests that, if industrial electrification accelerates in earnest, additional electricity demand could reach up to 400 TWh — equivalent to 70% of Korea's current annual consumption (~580 TWh).

The demand outlook in the proposed 11th Basic Electricity Plan does not adequately reflect this electrification demand.

Limits of the 11th Plan

What the plan misses:

• Underestimated industrial electrification pace — gap between policy targets and actual transition speed
• Missing demand from new industries like semiconductors and batteries — large new loads such as the Yongin cluster
• EV charging and heat-pump deployment — distributional demand effects not adequately reflected

What Needs to Happen

To meet the additional 400 TWh demand, Korea needs to:

1. Greatly expand renewable supply — especially accelerated offshore wind
2. Invest in grid infrastructure — transmission and ESS expansion
3. Secure demand flexibility — activating Demand Response
4. Comprehensively revise the basic electricity plan — incorporating industrial electrification scenarios

Conclusion

If the 11th plan is finalised in its current form, Korea's carbon-neutrality goals could become difficult to achieve. Updating the demand outlook and significantly raising the supply plan is urgent.